15 April 2026 - ES & SPY
New bullish regime.
Current Regime
New bullish regime. All major timeframes have turned bullish. The difficulty in this particular environment is the lack of confluence of entry locations. This means possible intraday rotational conditions and weak buyers stopping out. Main focus for accessing swing long is the 6850 area.
Levels
Scenarios
Main Scenario — Bullish
Bullish with entry from main buy level or bullish references.
Alternative Scenario 1 — Rotational
Bullish references have a significant distance between them; this may lead to rotational trade intraday between them. This is more of a scalping environment and targets will be based on individual scalping methods.
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.