19 May 2026 - ES & SPY
Bullish without a solid base.
Current Regime
Long-term bullish looking for a solib base of buyers. The 7465 must be taken out to reassume ATH and the 7385 - 7395 must provide support.
Levels
Scenarios
Main Scenario — Bullish / stopout
Bullish from upper buy level is the main idea, this area could easily be challenged because the auction below it is weak. If it breaks a stop out is likely to occur.
Alternative Scenario 1 — Rotational
The area between 7380 and 7450 may continue to include most of the trade activity and in this scenario, only scalping is recommended.
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.