2 April 2026 - ES & SPY
Main short idea still valid.
Yesterday's Review
Main rotational scenario materialised, without testing the exact sell level.
Current Regime
Fundamentally, the headlines of Middle East escalations, in combination with prior buy levels compromised,put the market back into a clear short regime. It has recently been the case, that in new driven days, the market is unable to test sell levels, giving traders meaningful access to the main trade idea. The solution to this -especially for the less experienced- is stepping back or accessing the trading with small size, at pullbacks at intraday references, instead of selling breakouts.
Levels
Scenarios
Main Scenario — Bearish
The main short idea, has a high probability of remaining valid. Access from one of the sell zones, with focus on the second. The only buy level for the day, is the only obstacle towards the defined targets.
Alternative Scenario 1 — Bullish
Acceptance above 6700 opens up a potentially very strong mid/long-term move up, which will constitute a new regime. Possible in this headline-driven market.
Alternative Scenario 2 — Rotational
Intraday rotational between buy level and sell levels. This is a scenario complemented by shorter term mean reversion trades / scalps at the edges of ranges. Targets are mid-ranges, VWAPs, and opposite sides of range.
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.