25 March 2026 - ES & SPY
The market is between two main buy and sell zones and trade is rotational until accepted outside of the range.
Yesterday's Review
Yesterday's note identified the main buy zone for the day, targets were met during RTH and ETH.
Narrative
The market is between two main buy and sell zones and trade is rotational until accepted outside of the range.
Levels
Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Rotational
Trade is rotational between the main buy and sell levels, targets are mid-range and opposite sides of range.
Scenario 2 — Bearish
Accepting below the buy zone opens big targets on the down side. This trade is accessed by a pullback to 6595 area after the break.
Scenario 3 — Bullish
Break above the 6700 level opens up the test of the second main sell level 6748-6757 where a sustained bullish move will be confirmed or rejected.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.