26 March 2026 - ES & SPY
Strong short bias. Cautious entries at pullbacks.
Yesterday's Review
Yesterday's primary scenario came to fruition, and during ETH the market clearly broke the defined buy zone.
Narrative
Under the 6700 area the bias is clearly mid and long-term short. Intraday rallies to sell levels provide access to this trade, which has a downside potential of 200+ ticks.
Levels
Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Bearish
3 main sell levels -with an intraday focus on the 6618 area- provide access to the prevailing short trade idea.
Scenario 2 — Rotational
Failure of the lower sell level to offer resistance, puts the market in a choppy / rotational environment in the 6600- 6650 zone. More of a scalping environment, than position trading.
Scenario 3 — Bullish
News may send the market to the upper sell zone, and acceptance above 6700 is a new bullish regime.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.