30 March 2026 - ES & SPY
Clear short bias with high risk of short covering rallies.
Yesterday's Review
All targets of Thursday's plan met. On Friday the market was unable to pull back to good risk/reward locations, so the short idea could be accessed by intraday locations.
Current Regime
The big picture remains clearly bearish, with 3 main zones to sell. Again, failure of a zone to hold creates a short-term rotational environment. CAUTION: Although short bias remains below the 6700 area, Friday showed an excessively short market and that elevates the probability of aggressive short covering rallies.
Levels
Scenarios
Main Scenario — Bearish
Short with entry point at sell levels, focus on 6510 - 6520.
Alternative Scenario 1 — Rotational
Intraday rotational between failed sell levels. This is a scenario complemented by shorter term mean reversion trades / scalps at the edges of ranges.
Alternative Scenario 2 — Bullish
Failure of multiple sell levels to hold puts the market in a short covering rally, which may test the overall short bias. Access this bias buying pullbacks at failed sell levels, after they have cleanly been compromised.
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.