8 April 2026 - ES & SPY
Important regime change.
Current Regime
New regime after war headlines; the market is above prior sell levels, indicating a strong possibility for a bull market. It is crucial that prices remain above the 6700 area for the regime to be valid.
Levels
Scenarios
Main Scenario — Bullish
Long from the main buy levels. If the first one does not hold, it may make a few days of balance before the lower buy level is tested.
Alternative Scenario 1 — Rotational
Inability to sustain the intense buying of the last 20h may result in a rotational market in the 6740 - 6800 area. This would most probably be a choppy environment better for scalping.
Alternative Scenario 2 — Bearish
Supported by a shift in war headlines, the buy levels may not hold, and the market re-enters the bear side.
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.