27 March 2026 - ES & SPY
Yesterday's primary scenario materialized with precision and target 1 was met.
Yesterday's Review
Yesterday's primary scenario materialized with precision and target 1 was met.
Current Regime
The bias remains clearly short, but recent order flow indicates that sellers are shorter-term participants, which opens the room for aggressive intraday stop runs. For traders, this translates to the need for confirmation at sell levels.
Levels
Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Bearish
The main short trade idea remains, and is accessed by the sell levels. Intraday focus is on the 6575 sell level, which is the foundation of a short/mid-term move lower.
Scenario 2 — Intraday Rotational
Failure of the lower sell level to offer resistance, puts the market in a choppy / rotational environment in the 6600- 6650 zone. More of a scalping environment, than position trading. Still mid/long-term the bias would remain bearish under 6700.
Scenario 3 — Bullish
News or lack of persistent sellers may send the market to the upper sell zone, and acceptance above 6700 is a new bullish regime.
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.