23 April 2026 - ES & SPY
No solid level to lean on for the bulls.
Yesterday's Review
Main scenario was targeting ATH above the specified sell level, which should great support multiple times, but ATH were not achieved.
Current Regime
Bullish with scattered references, not showing enough confluence to justify and buy level. Bullish references will be shared as a guide, but no scenarios. The Desk Note will not publish levels that cannot stand 100% behind them.
Levels
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.