28 April 2026 - ES & SPY
Intraday rotational, overall bullish.
Current Regime
Main idea remains bullish above the 7000 area. On an intraday level the market is between a buy and a sell level, which may cause choppy trading. This whole area of conflict can be treated as a no-go zone (7140 – 7186), and positions may be placed after acceptance below (short) or above (long).
Levels
Scenarios
Main Scenario — Bullish
Above sell zone if it breaks, access via pullback to that area.
Alternative Scenario 1 — Rotational
Rotational in the 7140 – 7186 area. This is the choppy trade scenario.
Alternative Scenario 2 — Short-term bearish
Below 7145, a clear acceptance with support of volume may lead to test of the overall bullish regime at 7000.
Important Notes
Execution — Sell and buy levels are not automatic entries. Traders must use their own short-term tools — orderflow, technical indicators, or otherwise — to confirm and time execution. If at the time of reading the market is trading above a sell level, that level's bearish bias is void, and vice versa.
Level Integrity — Levels are invalidated by acceptance beyond them, not a few ticks through. A wick through a level that reverses is rejection, not invalidation.
Timing — This note is prepared pre-market. Intraday developments may alter the relevance of any scenario.
Definitions
Price acceptance — Price spends significant time and generates high volume above or below a level, establishing a market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Price rejection — Price fails to spend significant time or generate high volume at a level, showing a lack of market consensus that it is a fair trade location.
Rotational market — Price oscillates within the range of an accepted value area regardless of timeframe or extent, effectively rejecting trade outside that range to maintain the established consensus.
Buy/Sell levels — Price ranges where increased participation is expected and risk/reward is maximised, provided the level maintains its integrity.
Bullish/Bearish refs — References expected to provide buy/sell side action, without being important enough to support a regime.
Targets — Price levels representing the partial or full conclusion of a move, where profit-taking may trigger a counter-reaction without being treated as an expected trend reversal location.